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Kevin’s Reflection: on prior auths and history repeating itself
Regular newsletter readers will know the conversation around prior auths this year has caught my attention. When CMMI’s WISeR model was announced earlier this year, it seemed like a pretty straight-forward effort to me — here were a few areas of spend, like skin substitutes, that clearly seemed to have something odd going on, and this program is intended to help limit that. Particularly for CMMI, which has come under fire in DC for not reducing costs, this seemed like a no brainer. So I’ve been surprised at the amount of backlash in DC and calls from members of Congress to halt the program. Even this week, former CMMI Director Elizabeth Fowler penned an op/ed encouraging a “watchful waiting” posture towards the model, acknowledging the concerns and skepticism, while also acknowledging the real underlying problems it seeks to address.
It goes without saying at this point that prior auths have become a topic that more broadly is seen as the worst of managed care in this county. What is less discussed, though, are the similarities between the conversation we are collectively having today and the public backlash against managed care in the 1990s. To wit, I was fascinated to learn that in 1999, UnitedHealthcare made a decision to remove all prior auths from its plans. I recently had a chance to chat with Archelle Georgiou, who was UHC’s Chief Medical Officer at that point in time, to discuss that decision. You can check it out here.
The decision generated national fanfare at that time, although we discussed in the conversation how it wasn’t as well received by some state regulators and employers. Archelle also shared that this move was made by UHC as an effort to reduce medical spending at the time, a concept that was rather counterintuitive to me, given I generally think of prior auths as a key cost containment tool for payers. It was fascinating to hear her discuss how eliminating them, and replacing with some form of prior notification + care management, could actually generate meaningful savings for a health plan. When I think about the market today, I think about an MA plan like Alignment that seems to be doing quite well compared to the rest of the industry by emphasizing a similar narrative around care management. It’s not hard to see the appeal of such an approach.
So as we think about the broader healthcare crises today in this country, and more specifically the role of prior auths, this conversation was a good reminder to me that we’re dealing with new versions of the same things that we were dealing with 25 years ago. If you’re a policy maker, entrepreneur, or executive thinking about how to navigate all of this change, I think it’s worth listening to Archelle’s experience as you think about navigating the path forward.
Q3 EARNINGS
Molina’s ACA miss causes a 20% stock drop
This week kicked off Q3 earnings season, with Molina’s earnings call standing out. Molina reported Q3 results on Thursday, prompting it’s stock to drop 20% as it revised its 2025 earnings guidance downwards for the third time this year — from $24.50 earnings per share to start the year, to $21.50 - $22.50 ahead of Q2 earnings, to $19.00 at Q2 earnings, to $14.00 this week.
Molina’s Medicaid book of business is expected to generate a 3.2% pretax margin this year and contribute $16.00 of earnings per share for 2025. So if you’re wondering how overall EPS target is only $14.00, it’s because the ACA business is now expected to lose $2.00 per share, down from an initial expectation of generating $3.00 of EPS. That $5.00 swing represents half of Molina’s underperformance for the year, despite its ACA business only being 10% of revenue.
One of the most confusing things to me in all of this is how Molina was so surprised by its Q3 ACA performance. When an analyst asked what the drivers of the miss were, Molina noted it was medical cost trend “literally across all categories”. I have not yet heard a good explanation for why this is the case and what happened between July and September that caused Molina to miss so badly on this business. Particularly when Elevance reported this week that ACA trend was favorable in the quarter for them.
If you have a theory, I’d love to hear it (note that Molina said explicitly it was not the Wakely risk adjustment stuff). It seems concerning, because if you go back to Q2 earnings, I pondered if Molina’s “small, silver, and stable” strategy was going to cause a major issue for Molina in 2026 because of the dynamics associated with churn on silver plans that Centene discussed at the time.
✍ Going Deeper
Here’s a big more on the key strategic takeaways across each line of business moving forward. Despite the ACA miss this quarter, it actually seems like a pretty optimistic picture for Molina moving forward in Medicaid and Duals.
A 2026 ACA retreat. Molina intends to shed a significant portion of its membership in 2026 and get the ACA business to breakeven. It expects revenue to drop 50%+ in this business while pricing for mid-single digit margins (note this seems to imply that the Q3 cost pressure has essentially wiped out all the margin it priced for in 2026). Will be curious to see if they’re even in this market at all in 2027.
Acquiring Medicaid revenue. Molina noted that its generating 3.2% margin on Medicaid, and it will be acquiring “as much Medicaid revenue as possible” from struggling local health plans at book value and moving it up to Molina’s target margin range. Seems like they see a big opportunity ahead to gobble up plans struggling with the short term market dislocation.
Medicare’s D-SNP “rejuvenation”. Molina mentioned Medicare is seeing a “rejuvenation” based on the attractiveness of the dual eligible opportunity, even despite high utilization in LTSS and high-cost pharma in the high-acuity duals population. It is projecting the Medicare business to be breakeven in 2026, but sees opportunity in this segment over time.
Q3 EARNINGS
Other Q3 earnings roundup: Elevance, HCA, and CHS
This week kicked off Q3 earnings season, with three notable healthcare companies reporting earnings beyond Molina: Elevance, HCA, and CHS. A bit more on those below:
Elevance stock was down 1% on the week as it reported a relatively uneventful third quarter. Elevance’s Medicaid business underperformed during the quarter, generating a -0.5% margin. It expects margin to decline further in 2026. Elevance is positioning 2027 as the year Medicaid gets back to target margins, although analysts had a lot of questions about the impact of OBBBA on acuity shifts in the population.
HCA stock was up almost 5% on the week after posting a good quarter that saw it beat its key financial metrics and raise its outlook for the year.
Community Health Systems stock was up 30% on the week as Q3 results beat Wall Street expectations by a wide margin.
Chart of the Week
It’s a common thought at this point that health systems are significantly ahead of payers in adopting AI tools, which is a key part of what is causing the differential financial performance between health systems and payers the past few quarters.
This Menlo Ventures survey of 700+ executives provided a fascinating visual supporting that point — healthcare has seen a massive uptick in AI adoption over the past twelve months. It has surging from <9% a year ago to 22% today, dramatically outpacing the US economy, which has grown to 9%. But look at the data for health systems versus payers: health systems are at 27%, while payers are only at 14%. It’s generally confusing to me why payers have been caught so flat-footed by this shift, but nonetheless this data seems to support that notion.
This quote below in particular stood out to me. While I know there’s a lot of momentum here, seeing quotes like this in the article give me some pause. I’m not sure that I view it as a positive proof point for the market that an organization like SimonMed is piloting 50+ AI vendors.
SimonMed, one of the largest independent radiology groups in the U.S., has scaled its partnerships from co-building with fewer than 10 vendors to piloting solutions from more than 50, including AI systems for intake, ambient scribing, and revenue cycle management.
Other Top Headlines
Business Insider reports that Ensemble Health, a revenue cycle management company, is reportedly on a dual-track process for an IPO or a sale early in 2026, seeking a ~$13 billion valuation for the business. Bon Secours Mercy Health appears to have done quite well on Ensemble Health, a business it purchased in 2016 at a valuation of $106 million. In 2019, it sold a 52% stake in Ensemble to Golden Gate Capital for $1.2 billion. In 2022, Berkshire and Warburg Pincus acquired a majority of the business at a reported $5b+ valuation. It’s unclear how much Bon Secours still owns today, but it was reported it remains a commercial partner and shareholder.
According to Forbes, CVS plans to close 16 Oak Street Health clinics, citing the cost pressures that Medicare Advantage plans are feeling and the downstream pressure that creates on clinics. CVS is focusing on growth in existing centers versus growth in new centers moving forward.
Optum is apparently in the process of selling its UK business, per Sky News. The core piece of Optum UK is EMIS, an electronic medical record platform that Optum acquired in 2023 for ~$1.5 billion. Blackstone and other PE groups are reportedly exploring bids for the business.
DocGo acquired SteadyMD for $12.5 million in cash and a potential earnout of $12.5 million. SteadyMD is on track for $25 million of revenue in 2025 and expects to be EBITDA positive in 2026. The investor slides describe the acquisition logic well — DocGo’s in home provider network benefits from SteadyMD’s virtual provider network, and vice versa. DocGo, which currently has a market cap around $120 million, has seen its stock price decline 88% since going public via SPAC. DocGo has seen its revenue decline by ~50% year-over-year as it has lost a $432 million contract with New York City and faced substantial criticism over its business practices there.
Oregon’s Samaritan Health Services is being acquired by MultiCare, a Washington based not-for-profit health system. Despite the state’s seemingly steadfast commitment to having zero interest in outside entities acquiring healthcare entities in the state (c.f. SCAN/CareOregon and Optum/Corvallis Clinic), it seems that that Oregon entities continue to have an interest in being acquired by out-of-state partners. Weird how that happens.
Primary care enabler Oasis Health Partners acquired Asheville-based PreferCare. PreferCare’s website notes they take JVs with independent provider groups to help implement value-based care.
Humana and Providence announced a new data sharing initiative, building a foundation to execute on value-based care initiatives.
Optum launched a new AI-driven claims processing technology called Optum Real. It is piloting the platform with Allina Health, a Minneapolis-based health system, in cardiology and radiology.
Axios reports that Epic is winding down its program that invests in startups like Abridge. Despite the gains from the Abridge investment, it seems like a logical thing for Epic to do given the circus the Abridge investment has caused.
FindHelp acquired Uno Health to help support Medicaid eligibility and enrollment processes.
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Funding Announcements
OpenEvidence raised another $200 million at a $6 billion valuation. This comes just three months after it raised $210 million at a $3.5 billion valuation. It reports it is doing 15 million clinical consults a month today, up from 8.5 million per month back in July. It’s a pretty astonishing growth rate. The advertising revenue gravy train is starting to kick in, as it is now apparently generating $50 million in revenue (unclear from the reporting if this is ARR or what) after starting to commercialize the app three months ago.
SheMed, a UK-based GLP-1 telehealth startup, raised $50 million at a $1 billion valuation.
Hyro, an AI agent for front office / call center tasks, raised $45 million. It reports that 40+ health systems are using Hyro, including Weill Cornell Medicine and Inova.
knownwell, a hybrid care model for obesity medicine, raised $25 million. It’s hybrid approach is now available at ten locations in four states (Massachusetts, Georgia, Illinois, and Texas) and a virtual offering is available nationwide. Interestingly, it opened six clinics in Chicago earlier this year that seem to have been previously affiliated with Ascension, and knownwell’s Chicago Medical Director previously worked for Ascension’s Weight Loss Solutions program.
Fourier Health, an AI platform for unstructured clinical data, raised $8.4 million.
What I’m Reading
Provider consolidation and its malcontents: an interview Olivia Kosloff by Olivia Kosloff and Martin Cech
I thought this was a good back-and-forth between this week about the drawbacks of consolidation and how to better support independent practices. It’s interesting to read about the point Kosloff makes regarding value-based care heading the wrong direction, when so much of the theory of VBC (at least as I think about it) is about supporting independent clinicians in doing right by patients. For VBC proponents, I think it highlights the magnitude of the challenge in driving VBC adoption ahead. Read more
The Concierge Cure? by Lisa Rosenbaum
Speaking of provider independence, there seems to be a renewed interest in concierge care lately as a alternative path forward for a broken primary care infrastructure. This opinion in NEJM is an interesting read on the merits, and drawbacks, of the model. Read more
Scaling Remote Patient Care: The Mechanics of a Paradigm Shift in Chronic Disease Management by multiple authors
An interesting read in NEJM Catalyst about a remote monitoring program that Providence co-developed with Cadence. Across 2,500 patients and nine markets in four states, it has seen some solid results across patients with hypertension, heart failure, and diabetes. It notes that 37% of patients were from rural / underserved areas, which seems notable particularly given the upcoming Rural Health Transformation program and health systems’ interest in helping to manage the $50 billion in funding that will be doled out to support rural markets. Read more
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