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Q2 EARNINGS

Q2 Earnings Updates: ACA issues drag Molina and HCA; Tenet outperforms

This week’s slate of Q2 earnings brought some fascinating strategic updates and big stock swings across Molina, CHS, HCA, and Tenet. A few key themes emerged that I’ll be keeping an eye on:

  1. Everyone is missing on ACA, but for two different reasons.

    1. HCA and CHS both had issues because none of the ACA disenrollees picked up commercial insurance, and everyone still continued showing up in the ED. Tenet appears to have seen similar behavior, but modeled it better.

    2. Meanwhile, Molina’s “small, silver, and stable” strategy appears to have backfired, as it appears to be in a death spiral. While it noted that overall ACA acuity is tracking as expected, it has seen its healthy members leave and has retained a higher-than-expected portion of high-cost members, particularly members using high-cost drugs that don’t correspond to higher HCCs.

    3. Given the juxtaposition of these two bullets above, it would seem logical that some non-Molina payers are doing quite well on the ACA at the moment while it collapses

  2. Commercial inpatient surgery volume is causing worries. Lots of questions over what is driving this, with CHS clearly stating this is a broader macro-environment issue with affordability concerns showing up in people deferring elective ortho and cardiac procedures. HCA also referred to affordability challenges driving declines in elective inpatient surgeries. On the other hand, Tenet noted it is not seeing a consumer pullback. It is fascinating seeing this dynamic play out while payers are reporting high commercial trend (note UHC seeing trend upwards of 11%).

  3. Medicaid dollars are buoying hospital results. HCA, Tenet, and CHS noted the tailwinds from state-directed payment programs this quarter. Medicaid continues to dominate the narrative as an increasingly important revenue stream and profitability driver for hospitals, which runs counter to the historical narrative around Medicaid losses.

  4. Despite Molina’s ACA challenges, its core business in Duals / Medicaid appears to be doing well, with trend moderating and its profitability in the Duals segment outpacing expectations. Another good indicator for the managed care sector in 2026.

Here’s a bit more on each of the earnings sessions:

Molina’s ACA Miss; Duals Outperformance

  • On Tuesday, Molina stock dropped 11% as its historical approach of “small silver and stable” appears to have imploded, with Molina noting that despite a 30% pricing increase in 2026, it is still underwater on the business. The stock drop comes despite Molina increasing earnings guidance for the year on outperformance in its core Duals business.

    It attributed the ACA challenge to its retaining a higher percentage of sick members than it had expected, and in particular, members using high-cost drugs that do not translate to higher HCCs, which leaves Molina underwater from a risk adjustment perspective. Given the general trend towards high-cost specialty pharma, CGTs, and the like, this seems like an issue to keep an eye on. Molina noted that at ~280k members, its membership represents only ~1% of the overall ACA market, and that on the whole, market acuity came in better than expected. Molina’s CEO made a point that this apparently wasn’t an issue with metal tiers, or Molina’s formulary; it’s simply that Molina mispriced for the acuity shift in its declining membership.

    It does seem true that Molina mispriced for the acuity shift, but it sure seems like the “small, silver, and stable” strategy has fully imploded here. Molina noted that it plans to further pull back from ACA membership, reducing revenue by $1 billion in the market, off something around $2.5 billion in 2026. At 280k members today, that seems to imply Molina expects to have ~160k members in 2027. Hindsight being 20/20 and all, at this juncture it seems like Molina should have exited the exchanges entirely, as it appears its offering is now in a death spiral on the exchanges. Molina seems confident it can price its way out of this issue, but the 2026 experience seems to indicate otherwise.

    The death spiral-y vibes naturally raise concerns for the broader ACA market, as has been discussed recently given 2027 rate filings, but with the commentary around the broader acuity projections being in line or better, it seems this issue may be unique to Molina’s ACA strategy. HCA, CHS, Elevance, and UHC all seem to confirm in their Q2 results as well.

    The results here be frustrating for Molina as the ACA business represents <6% of revenue in 2026 but is dragging down its core businesses in Duals and Medicaid, which otherwise appear to be performing well. The Duals outperformance was particularly notable, as Molina increased its EPS expectations in that business by $1.50 per share on 1.5% margins, which is ahead of expectations for a business that is targeting 2.5% margins over time. In Medicaid, Molina is similarly performing well, as it sounds like rates and trends are catching up, giving it confidence that 2026 is indeed the trough year there. It expects a ~9% market contraction in Medicaid over the next three years from work requirements, but appears confident that it will be able to successfully navigate that shift while growing margins.

HCA’s ACA Miss; Surgical Volume Weakness

  • On Friday, HCA announced its earnings, sharing more detail after previously announcing a payer mix shift issue as patients moved from exchange to uninsured.

    HCA highlighted that there were two factors driving its ACA miss:

    • It previously expected 85% of ACA members to move to uninsured, with the remainder presumably hopping to commercial. Instead, it is seeing a number closer to 100% move to uninsured

    • It had assumed lower utilization among members that would go uninsured, which has not been the case

    Half of the ACA issue is concentrated in three markets for HCA — Houston, North Florida, and SC / GA. In those three markets, HCA reported that it has seen 25% to 28% declines in ACA volumes. Interestingly, this issue is one a very small portion of its volume — HCA shared that of its 1.1 million admissions, the ACA issue was related to ~22,000 admissions, representing roughly 2% of its volume. It’s a huge swing in business performance driven by a very small percent of the business, which seems true both for HCA and Molina in their misses this quarter.

    Beyond the ACA issue, HCA reported broader weakness in inpatient and outpatient surgical volumes, which was the other major narrative for the quarter. HCA shared that it has two “sources” of inpatient surgeries. First is the emergency department, which is the channel for 2/3s of inpatient, and that continues to grow, up 2% YoY. Elective surgeries are the other 1/3, and they are down 6% on elective procedures this year. HCA believes that the ACA business plays a role in this. HCA said it is hearing from physicians that this is due to general affordability and economic issues. HCA also noted that its outpatient surgeries are in a better spot, with higher acuity cases driving earnings growth.

CHS misses on double whammy of commercial softness & uninsured growth

  • CHS stock fell ~17% this week as it missed Q2 earnings and reduced its FY outlook, explaining that its results were dragged down by an increase in uninsured patients, along with a decrease in commercial elective surgery volumes. Notably, same-store inpatient surgeries were down 3.8% year-over-year. There are some tailwinds CHS noted, specifically the state-directed payment programs in Georgia, Indiana, and Florida, but those are being more than offset by the commercial and ACA issues.

    On the ACA issue, CHS noted that its assumptions around ACA disenrollment have been in line with revenue expectations, but ACA disenrollees have continued using CHS hospitals for care more than expected, and it is making almost no revenue on those patients, who have essentially all become uninsured. CHS’s self-pay population was 5% of visits last year, and this year it is 1.1% higher, just above 6%. CHS collects “pennies on the dollar” in self-pay, so it doesn’t recognize any material revenue there. CHS noted this is a high-utilizer population for ERs, and they’re still showing up in the ER just as they did before.

    On the commercial surgery decline, CHS shared that orthopedics is the largest decline (hips, knees, shoulders), as well as cardiology procedures. While CHS noted that cardiology procedures might not seem elective, they generally are, as people are deferring screenings, which leads to deferred procedures, which mirrors what CHS saw during COVID. CHS is seeing volume increase in its ASCs, but it is lower acuity. It is seeing increases in clinic visits and orthopedic MRIs, which should indicate it is seeing patient volume; that is just translating to fewer procedures. CHS thinks that this is an economic decision people are making to defer care.

    It’s a bit odd to see a hospital earnings call discussing things like gas prices, Fed Chair decisions, and wars, but it is clear that CHS thinks this is a general affordability issue for consumers at the moment.

Tenet beats by a mile on ASC strength; Medicaid tailwinds

  • While everyone else this week seemingly struggled, Tenet had a solid quarter with its stock jumping 17%, as it increased its Adj EBITDA guidance for FY 2026 by $295 million at the midpoint, a 6% increase. Tenet saw a tailwind from supplemental Medicaid revenue, although it noted that it would have still beaten for the quarter without Medicaid. The ASC strategy appears to be paying dividends, as it focuses on higher-acuity procedures (it noted it is seeing 10% YoY growth in joint replacements), and it will exceed $300 million in M&A in 2026.

    It’s interesting to note that Tenet appears to have seen similar ACA issues to HCA, citing a 17% decline in ACA revenue YoY. Tenet also reported that is seeing an almost one-for-one patient migration from ACA to uninsured, although later clarified that number is not quite 100%, but rather it is between 80% and 100%. That clarification seems important given HCA shared its original expectation was 85%, but it was hammered as it appears their number was much closer to 100%.

    Tenet also noted that it is not seeing a consumer pullback occurring, unlike CHS, and in general doesn’t think this is an environment where anyone should be pessimistic about acute care, given that they’re seeing 2% - 2.5% volume increase numbers published throughout the industry. Given the results in Q2, particularly compared to HCA and CHS, it’s hard to argue with Tenet’s general thesis around high acuity ASCs here.

CHART OF THE WEEK

The CBO provides an update on health insurance coverage projections through 2036

Given the conversations above about payer mix shifts, as well as the general dialogue the last few weeks about how broken employer-sponsored insurance potentially is, it was interesting to see the CBO release a ten-year projection of health insurance coverage sources this week as part of a broader report on federal insurance subsidies.

The biggest shifts over the next decade: Medicaid (-3.8%); Medicare (+2.2%); Uninsured (+1.8%); ACA (-0.7%). Meanwhile, the employer segment hardly moves, decreasing by 0.1%. For as much energy is spent discussing how broken things feel today, it’s a good reminder that these markets aren’t going anywhere.

THE HOT PEPTIDE SUMMER

FDA Advisory Panel recommends six peptides in a split vote while Hims stock drops 14%

If you were on healthcare social media channels on Thursday / Friday, chances are you’ve seen that the FDA’s Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee met and voted to recommend that compounding restrictions on six peptides should be lifted, while it voted against one peptide. It is worth noting that this is a recommendation to the FDA at the moment, not a decision.

The vote was split amongst two factions; an RFK-nominated contingent that generally has commercial ties to peptides voted for the recommendation, while career FDA scientists voted against. This split naturally caused some consternation on social media, with skeptics pointing out the supporters have an obvious financial conflict, while supporters pointed out that everyone has financial conflicts and patients are using them, so who cares about that. The arguments on both sides follow the consumerism vs science narratives one might expect:

  • For: patients are already purchasing these peptides like BPC-157 from an unregulated grey market; it is safer to approve and distribute them via licensed pharmacies

  • Against: there is very little scientific evidence that any of the peptides in question actually work, and they probably do harm

On its face, the recommendation appears like an expected win for the peptide community, and in particular, the capital that has been flowing into the market supporting the infrastructure for peptides. Given that, it was fascinating to see Hims stock price dropping ~14% despite the approvals. At the very least, it’s a reminder that this recommendation is just one step in the process, and at best it appears the FDA would make this change towards the end of 2026. Keep in mind the FDA isn’t required to listen to the recommendation of this committee, and perhaps the split vote between FDA career scientists and peptide supporters has spooked investor sentiment a bit.

Other Top Headlines

  • Axios reports that New Mountain Capital is looking to sell Machinify, one of the New Mountain assets that was originally contemplated as part of Matt Holt’s Thoreau. New Mountain originally acquired Machinify in early 2025, combining it with Rawlings, Apixio’s payment integrity business, and VARIS. Machinify’s presentation at JPM earlier this year provided a glimpse into the financials of a business that has integrated five companies over the last couple of years: revenue was ~$750 million and growing at a 21% CAGR, while EBITDA was ~38%, growing to 51% by 2028.

  • CMS has opted to recalculate Stars scores for every Medicare Advantage plan after the spate of recent lawsuits from carriers following Clover’s legal win. Per Modern Healthcare, 69% of MA beneficiaries are in 4+ star plans, up from 65% originally.

  • ChatGPT launched its Health features this week for US users, allowing people to connect health information. The launch notes that 300+ million people turn to ChatGPT each week with health-related questions. The timing is notable here as it comes the same week the NYTimes reports that OpenAI is being sued over ChatGPT’s “extremely dangerous medical recommendations”. Bob Wachter penned a good Substack post on the juxtaposition of these two headlines and the implications.

  • Women’s health provider Wildflower Health acquired Every Mother, a D2C pelvic floor and core exercise program. With the acquisition, Wildflower enters the D2C market, which it notes is a rapidly growing channel given the accessibility/cost challenges of traditional healthcare models. We’ll be keeping an eye on this market, and how the unbundling of maternity payments starting January 2027 potentially impacts activity in the market.

  • Mindoula acquired Janus Healthcare Partners and Valera Health, positioning the combined entity to be a risk-bearing mental health provider that can partner with health plans and provider organizations to offer behavioral health services to complex and rising-risk populations.

  • Abridge acqui-hired Altrina, a YC-backed agentic AI platform.

  • Surgery Partners stock jumped 6% as it sold its stake in two Idaho-based hospitals to Intermountain for $795 million, valuing the two hospitals at $1.15 billion. Surgery Partners mentioned in Q1 earnings that it expected a divestiture to close in 2026, and given its activist investor’s push to exit surgical hospitals, it seems like a logical move.

  • AdventHealth and Intermountain announced a new joint venture in Denver, which will bring together five AdventHealth and three Intermountain hospitals. AdventHealth will manage the venture and lead daily operations.

  • DexCom is the first announced participant in the FDA’s TEMPO pilot, which also means DexCom will be participating in CMMI’s ACCESS program, focused on prediabetes and type 2 diabetes management (the eCKM and the CKM tracks). It’s fascinating to see DexCom participating in ACCESS as a more traditional medical device manufacturer that has been thinking about the D2C market with its Stelo product (although that appears to have had slower uptake than DexCom would have hoped). TEMPO is intended to approve ~10 devices for each of the four ACCESS tracks — will be curious to see if we see any other device companies in this group.

Funding Announcements

  • Candid Health, an autonomous RCM platform, raised $120 million. Sixth Street Growth led the round, reportedly at a 3x valuation increase from its February 2025 Series C. Standard dilution math would seem to imply that Candid is valued somewhere around $1.2 billion in this round. Candid reports 190% YoY growth in ARR, noting surging demand from enterprise provider organizations. It’s interesting to see how the language describing Candid’s customer base has changed slightly from its Series C in 2025, when it clearly focused on telehealth and named specific telehealth customers including Allara, Nourish, and Talkiatry. The logos on Candid’s website still seem heavily telehealth-centric, although the funding round talks much more generally about Candid serving healthcare providers, without naming a customer.

  • Assured Health, a physician credentialing platform, raised $19 million. Insight Partners led the Series A. Assured reports working with a wide range of 100+ customers, including Houston Methodist, Tono Health, and Birches Health. Given the amount of venture-backed startup energy that has gone into solving the provider credentialing issue over the last decade, it seems indicative of the complexity of the challenge at hand in onboarding providers. The underwriting case here seems to center on the idea that the complexity makes it the perfect opportunity to automate with agentic AI workflows.

  • Karoo Health, a VBC cardiology model, raised $16.2 million. 7wire Ventures and Allumia Ventures co-led the Series A. Karoo supports a network of 600+ cardiology providers across 11 states, contracting with national and regional health plans to implement value-based payment models that improve clinical outcomes while reducing cost of care. Humana appears to be one of Karoo's recent contract wins, as it launched a handful of new cardiology-focused VBC partnerships earlier this spring. We’re keeping a close eye on this and other “VBC 2.0” efforts, as it seems like a natural evolution of VBC models as payers look to manage high-cost clinical populations.

What I’m Reading

  • A new report written on behalf of the Coalition of Independent Dispute Resolution Entities makes the case that the No Surprises Act’s IDR process is working exactly as intended. The report argues that the NSA is designed to protect patients from out-of-network bills, and that Independent Dispute Resolution Entities are behaving as anticipated in resolving the disputes. The report discusses at length the various mechanics of the IDR process that have been heavily scrutinized recently, including QPAs and high dispute volumes. The fact that we now have political advocacy groups involved in this process on behalf of a newly-created cottage industry of IRDEs, I think, says everything that needs to be said about the No Surprises Act. It is hard to argue with the fact that it is reducing surprise bills, as the authors note. It also seems to miss the forest from the trees in terms of the broader ongoing healthcare affordability conversation, while providing a great example of how ineffective the government can be in stepping into the middle of a negotiation between two sophisticated counterparties.

  • The state of Delaware passed three pieces of legislation this week, which prohibit private equity from buying hospitals in the state for the next two years, expand charity care, mandate investments in primary care, and implement price caps on hospitals at 250% of Medicare rates. The coverage notes criticism that the bill has been gutted, with the price caps implementation pushed out to 2029. While the bills here are understandable politically, I’m not quite sure how the math works here on its face. I’d maybe suggest that Delaware could have skipped passing the private equity bill at this point, because I’m not sure what private equity firm would want to buy a hospital in an environment where charity care is increasing, and price caps are incoming — private equity firms generally prefer opportunities with positive cash flow. While the state is seemingly not happy with how Prospect Medical Holdings shuttered Crozer Health in 2025, I’m not entirely sure the alternative scenario would have been much more palatable here; without a PE backstop, it seems that Crozer Health would have just been forced to shutter sooner, no?

  • Cityblock’s Ohio market leader (and former Ohio Medicaid official) Marisa Weisel penned a commentary in a local Ohio newspaper arguing against state legislative efforts to scrap Ohio’s managed care system in Medicaid, in favor of moving back to fee-for-service. This is a conversation that seems to be picking up steam among multiple states, which is notable given Medicaid accounts for around 30% of total state spending. Also worth keeping an eye on here is the emerging fault line between local providers and VBC startups. As healthcare margins get squeezed and local provider groups compete harder for increasingly important Medicaid dollars, I’d expect we hear more of this narrative from local provider communities about how they are the trusted local partner for a community, while planting seeds of distrust in “new entrant” models. It strikes me as an unfortunate, albeit effective, political argument in the current climate, and one that venture-backed models will need to navigate.

  • A Science article featured the heart-wrenching story of a 6-year-old girl who died days after receiving an n-of-1 gene editing therapy in China to treat a gene mutation that causes a syndrome similar to autism. The girl’s parents apparently raised $860k for the treatment, receiving financial pressure from clinicians that seems… concerning. The family is now pseudonymously sharing the story because they feel there is a lack of accountability and they didn’t realize how dangerous the treatment was. The Science article highlights a plethora of safety, ethical, and financial concerns throughout the story that unfortunately seem like an ever-increasing reality these days, particularly when I think about the peptide conversation about what consumers want versus what scientists think. Caveat emptor feels like a depressing reality in this new era of consumer healthcare.

  • An article in Fortune by Evidenced Capital’s Brian Sivak and Ilant Health’s Elina Onitskansky makes the case that employers are mistakenly viewing GLP-1 coverage as a binary yes/no decision, with an increasing number of employers choosing not to cover them to save on costs. It argues for a more holistic approach to obesity care, with GLP-1s as one part of a broader model that combines medical care with broader lifestyle changes. The argument, which aligns closely with Ilant’s model, seems like an intuitive solution to the conundrum that employers face with GLP-1s. I’ve been quite intrigued by what Ilant is up to in the obesity care space, and am excited that Elina will giving a company update presentation to the HTN community this week (7/28 @ 12pm CT).

  • KFF highlighted an example of the individual patient challenges that feel inevitable ahead in the Medicaid market, discussing the story of a patient in Michigan who was incorrectly denied access to Medicaid benefits briefly after an error in Deloitte’s technology platform didn’t properly register that the patient is disabled and thought they earned too much to qualify for Medicaid. Deloitte, which has earned $756 million on Michigan Medicaid contracts since 2006, suggested its platform is working correctly and operates at Michigan's direction. Meanwhile, Michigan suggested its program has no widespread issues. Deloitte’s platform has come under scrutiny across a number of states over the last several years as KFF has noted Deloitte has been paid $6+ billion for platforms riddled with errors, including a Senate Finance Committee hearing, which included some rather insane examples — it cites how in Georgia, taxpayers spent $91 million on a work requirement system, which equates to $13,000 per enrollee, 5x higher than the total spending on health benefits. Ultimately, regardless of who is to blame here, it seems natural that we’ll hear more stories like this (and probably litigation around it) as states work to roll out work requirements.

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