👋 Welcome to this Sunday’s recap of healthcare news. Sutter Health’s LOI to acquire Allina Health dominated the discussion early in the week, while Klomp’s commentary at a STAT summit later in the week provided some interesting signal on where Medicare is heading ahead of a much-anticipated Final Notice in a few weeks. Trilliant offered a helpful, nuanced perspective on increased coding intensity associated with AI, and I spent time reflecting on a recent conversation with North Carolina State Health Plan’s Tom Friedman. Let’s dive in!

- Kevin

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TOP NEWS

Sutter and Allina announce intent to merge

California-based Sutter Health announced its intent to merge with Minnesota-based Allina Health (my last employer before starting Health Tech Nerds!), as the two parties have signed an LOI. If the merger is approved, the combined system would generate ~$25 billion in revenue annually, operating 39 hospitals across California, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Allina Health will retain its local market brand and leadership while becoming “Sutter Health’s Upper Midwest Division.” Sutter will invest $2 billion into Minnesota and Western Wisconsin to help improve patient access and affordability.

The nomenclature of referring to Allina as “Sutter Health’s Upper Midwest Division” seems indicative of the expansion plans for Sutter ahead, as does Sutter’s recently hired M&A leader. The Minnesotan in me may quibble with the “Upper Midwest” moniker for Allina — this is a system that now operates hospitals in California, Minnesota, and western Wisconsin… is a directional qualifier ahead of “Midwest” really necessary here?! I have to imagine the name is a tell as to Sutter’s planned strategy here. I’d be surprised if we don’t hear about more moves like this in the relatively near future.

It seems like a logical move for both leadership teams given the current state of both organizations. Sutter ambitions to enter the race of national health systems begins to materalize, while Allina secures long term stability in an uncertain healthcare environment in Minnesota. More scale generally seems to be a winning hand in healthcare. So the strategic logic here seems pretty straightforward to me, setting aside the broader questions over the societal value of cross-market mergers of health systems and whether or not there are any real synergies in a deal like this.

TOP HEADLINES

CHART OF THE WEEK

Trilliant’s exploration of hospital coding intensity

The Trilliant team shared a thoughtful perspective on the role of AI in increasing coding intensity in health systems. It explored data for six health systems that have adopted AI scribes and found a consistent upward trend in intensity of outpatient E/M visits across new and established patients. The article does a nice job thinking through the various levers that might be driving this. Check out the chart below, which highlights the steady increase in coding intensity for New Patient Visits across the various health systems.

MY MUSING

A reflection on building trust in healthcare innovation

Last week I had the chance to record a podcast episode with the North Carolina State Health Plan’s Tom Friedman, discussing the efforts underway to turn around the plan. North Carolina has always served as a fascinating test bed for healthcare innovation in this country, in part due to the active role the State Health Plan (SHP) has played.

Friedman and others penned a Health Affairs Forefront article late last year outlining their effort to turn around the plan, which covers ~750,000 lives in North Carolina and was projected to be at a ~$1 billion deficit by the end of 2027. A number of aspects of this effort fascinate me, including the decision to unwind the Clear Pricing Project, a prior initiative aimed at driving price transparency and ultimately reducing costs in the market via a reference-based pricing model. The Clear Pricing Project was a great case study in how efforts to drive cost savings can have the opposite of their intended effect, increasing healthcare costs in the state (providers who were historically paid below the RBP rate chose to participate; those who weren’t didn’t need to participate, thus increasing costs).

One of the key efforts Friedman and the SHP are now rolling out is becoming more of an active purchaser of surgical care, and specifically, offering zero-cost bundles for specific surgery types in partnership with Lantern (which just announced a funding round this week). As part of that, the SHP is attempting to influence its enrollees’ behavior to drive volume to lower-cost providers, and Novant Health joined the effort as well.

One of the topics Tom and I discussed was the need to build trust with SHP employees when rolling out these changes, particularly after coming in and raising premiums for those employees as part of fixing the deficit for the SHP. He made the point that payers haven’t historically been particularly good at building trust, and that building trust is key as the SHP rolls out programs like these. It’s a fascinating framing as a critical ingredient in driving successful uptake of innovation initiatives. This concept of building trust seems to come up in most conversations I have these days, and feels like a critical element of any healthcare effort.

You can watch the full convo below, or listen on Apple / Spotify:

A QUOTE TO PONDER

Medicare Director Chris Klomp spoke at STAT’s Breakthrough Summit East this week. Some of Klomp’s commentary was picked up by Bloomberg on Thursday, suggesting that the Medicare Advantage program is not sufficiently managing costs.

It is fascinating to juxtapose that headline with this quote from his interview with STAT’s Mario Aguilar, also at that event, about potentially enrolling Medicare beneficiaries into MA by default:

Klomp: CMS has a stated goal and this precedes the Trump administration, the Biden admission and beyond that every beneficiary, being an accountable relationship. Why do we care about that? We just talked about it because accountable relationships lead to higher quality measures, a better clinical experience, better clinical performance. It's healthier beneficiaries, healthier patients. And so could we see a default selection into an accountable relationship, which could be an ACO through the Medicare Shared Savings Program or a derivative or successor CMMI model from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation led by Director Sutton? Yes. Could it be through a Medicare Advantage enrollment? Yes.

Would either of those, in my view, be superior to a default enrollment into a fee-for-service arrangement where there's not this long-term secular relationship between the beneficiary, the patient and their provider? Yes. Why? Because we see healthier beneficiaries. That's a good thing.

Aguilar: Is that something you think we'll see in this administration?

Klomp: It's something we're considering.

I think if you stitch together the various statements Klomp has been making over the past several months, there’s an interesting common thread coming from CMS at the moment. This idea of encouraging long-term, accountable relationships with enrollees seems central to the broader narrative at hand, which I think most would agree seems like a good thing.

So if I think about that relationship as the central tenet of what CMS is trying to accomplish, while simultaneously ensuring that programs like Medicare Advantage are good stewards of taxpayer resources, the commentary all seems to fit together nicely.

Funding Announcements

What I’m Reading

CMS Proposes Its Best NBPP Yet by Brian Blase
Blase calls this the best Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters that he’s seen. noting the expanding options, increased competition, and payment integrity reforms, among other things. Read more

What’s Worse than a Ghost Network Plan? A No-Network Plan by Sabrina Corlette, Jason Levitis, and Lindsey Murtagh
A group from Georgetown’s CHIR critiques the NBPP’s encouragement of non-network plans in the ACA market, arguing that it ignores the realities of healthcare in the country today. Read more

Doximity Study Finds Physicians Rapidly Adopting AI, But Accuracy Concerns Persist
Doximity shared findings from a study it conducted on physician adoption of AI. Nothing groundbreaking, but good data points on how physicians are using AI in practice. Read more

The Peptide Boom Is Getting Out of Hand by Nicholas Florko
I must admit, I don’t pay too much attention to peptides. This week, they piqued my attention. Between this article in The Atlantic and Martin Shkreli’s X post, it will be interesting to see how mainstream this grey-market peptide craze conversation becomes. Read more

HTN Content

  • Community Brain Trust: Developments in fertility care delivery, Governor Walz's Medicaid overhaul proposal, evaluating AI tools for mental health, and more. Read here.

  • Weekly Health Policy Briefing: MedPAC recommendations, state-directed payments, and the ESRD bundled payment. Read here.

  • Increasing the number of safe days at home for children with special health care needs | Taylor Beery, Imagine Pediatrics. Read here.

  • Health Tech Nerds Radio

    • The Grand Roundup: Devoted Health’s strategy, Doctronic & AI regulation, DC MA spending debate, and more. Apple. Spotify. YouTube.

    • How North Carolina is fixing its $5.5B state employee health plan | Tom Friedman (NC State Health Plan). Apple. Spotify. YouTube.

    • Why CMMI needs simpler models and better measurement | Ankit Patel (Percepta, ex-CMMI). Apple. Spotify. YouTube.

    • Medicaid is an underappreciated innovation lab | Dr. Chris Cogle (Florida Medicaid) Apple. Spotify. YouTube.

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