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Q2 Earnings Season
Putting a bow on a busy Q2 earnings season
We spent time this week summarizing our key takeaways from Q2 earnings season, which you can see below, as Hims closed out the season on Monday.
We were quite curious to hear how Hims described consumer demand, after seeing mixed signals from others throughout the quarter, including some health systems pointing to affordability concerns driving reduced utilization, and BetterHelp talking about its cash-pay business imploding. Would that translate to cash-pay pressure for a business like Hims, or is the D2C cash-pay business, particularly around GLP-1s, exhibiting different consumer behavior?
It seems the latter was the case, as Hims increased its revenue guidance for FY 2026 by 10%, with subscribers up 19% YoY and revenue per subscriber up 21%, reflecting the impact of the shift to branded GLP-1s. The shift to branded GLP-1s wasn’t all good news for Hims, though, as gross margins fell from 76% in Q2 2025 to 64% in Q2 2026, with Hims describing the financial benefit of these branded products as being part of a portfolio that allows cross-selling of other items to consumers. It’s worth noting here that just last quarter, Hims told Wall Street that the unit economics of branded and compounded products are comparable, which is puzzling.
Hims appears set to exit 2026 at around a 12% Adj EBITDA margin, and reaffirmed its 2030 targets of $6.5 billion of revenue and $1.3 billion of Adj EBITDA, meaning it expects to grow to a 20% Adj EBITDA margin over the next few years. It’ll be worth keeping an eye on how that margin target plays out, particularly given the gross margin impact of branded GLP-1s. Hims also touted its AI capabilities, including the rollout of its AI-native Hers product in July, and shared it is full steam ahead on peptides, noting it will be ready to move quickly after the FDA formally greenlights peptides.
Stepping back from Hims, Q2 presented a number of interesting strategic updates on key themes across the sector, which we detailed in the slide below:
A more cautionary view on AI with some pockets of bullishness
Manageable trend buoying payors and VBC providers
A bull market for employer health solutions
Affordability issues for the healthcare consumer
Provider headwinds across ACA and surgery volumes

Source: HTN Research
HTN Live Earnings Recap
On Thursday, we’ll be doing a live recap of Q2 earnings season, talking through these trends and our voiceover of the implications. Join live here:
HTN’s Q2 Earnings Season Debrief. Thursday August 20th at 12pm ET
Company Spotlight
Pearl Health highlights its 1% admin expense ratio
Pearl Health’s CEO Michael Kopko and COO Gabriel Drapos gave a company update to HTN this week, sharing how its technology-centric approach to primary care enablement is generating positive financial and clinical outcomes, while also driving meaningful profitability at scale (Pearl projects $50m in net income in 2027, up from $16 million in 2026).
Perhaps the most interesting part of the discussion came during the slide below, which highlights how Pearl has reduced its administrative expense ratio from 4.6% in 2023 to just above 1% today, and is projected to fall below 1% by 2029. They compare that to comparable enablement plays at a 6.2% admin ratio and health plans at 12.3%.
The comparison across ratios between enablers and health plans isn’t necessarily apples-to-apples, i.e., insurers need to process claims, pay broker fees, etc., which Pearl doesn’t have. Nonetheless, it is impressive to see Pearl generating positive clinical outcomes while running at such a low number, particularly compared to its enablement peers, which provides a sense of the leverage Pearl is seeing from its technology-first approach.
Stepping back, if I’m someone at CMS thinking about my goal of getting all Medicare beneficiaries into an accountable relationship with a provider, I am taking a long, hard look at this admin ratio number that Pearl is citing here and how it compares to both other enablers and payors. If CMS can drive people into accountable care relationships while paying 1% for administrative expenses, that seems like a win. I left the presentation thinking about how it essentially sets up MSSP and Medicare Advantage as a live A/B test of two theories of how CMS could implement VBC — one where CMS is the payor and contracts with enablers to manage risk directly (MSSP), and one where CMS pays health plans to manage everything (MA).
If Pearl Health’s theory of the case holds that a technology-centric approach can drive positive clinical outcomes at a better margin profile, presumably that suggests the market will need to move down to a lower administrative expense number over time to compete with Pearl, and ultimately, if the goal is to bend the cost curve, that seems like a good thing to me.
Upcoming Company Presentation:
Virta Health. Tuesday, August 18, 12:00pm ET
Building a durable metabolic care business in the GLP-1 era: Virta Health company presentation and Q&A with Amit Shah
Chart of the Week
A survey on employers highlights PBM shift in small group market
A survey of 400+ employers by the National Alliance of Healthcare Purchaser Coalitions explored how employers are navigating rapidly increasing healthcare costs across pharma, hospital prices, and other high-spend categories. It’s well worth perusing; here were two particularly interesting charts to me:
Alternative Contracting Strategies Taking Off
There has been a huge lift in a variety of key strategies that can help employers manage medical spending, including centers of excellence, site of care, advanced primary care, tiered networks, direct contracting, and reference-based pricing. Each one of those categories has seen 12% to 19% growth over the past three years. It’d be fascinating to see this data broken down by employer size to see if there are any differences across segments, but regardless, it’s a strong indicator of the momentum startups addressing these strategies are likely seeing.
Big 3 PBMs are Displaced in Small Group Market
One of the headlines from the report was that the Big 3 PBM share among the employers surveyed fell by 9% YoY, going from 63.4% in 2025 to 54.3% in 2026. Underneath that data, the various segments tell a slightly different story: this shift appears to have happened almost entirely at the small-group level, which saw a decline from 70% to 44% YoY. The Big 3 PBMs actually grew share in the mid-sized market (1,000 - 9,999 lives), and fell by 3% in the large group (10,000+).
Other Top Headlines
STAT released an excellent investigation into Commure’s commercial strategy, including details of aggressive sales tactics that involve paying medical groups for referrals. The article raises concerns over Stark Law violations as a result, and STAT also reported that Commure has decided to terminate its referral partnership program in the past few days. The optics of Commure terminating this program while STAT is investigating it seem bad, as do the specific examples that STAT gives in its coverage. And it’s particularly concerning given that nobody can seem to succinctly explain what it is that Commure actually does. If nothing else, it’s a major crack in the Commure / General Catalyst narrative about transforming healthcare, suggesting the growth here might be due more to VC dollars subsidizing aggressive sales tactics than any real industry transformation. It all feels eerily reminiscent of when Axios investigated Olive AI back in 2022, shining a light on the cracks in Olive’s model just as the wheels started to come off there.
Value-based rural primary care enablement startup Main Street Health topped the Inc 5000 list of fastest-growing companies, reportedly sporting a 546,533% increase in revenue over the past 3 years, sitting at ~$4 billion in revenue today. It is founder Brad Smith’s second company to top the Inc 5000 in the last three years, as CareBridge was #1 on the list in 2023, before selling to Elevance for ~$2.7 billion in late 2024. Per the Inc reporting, Main Street currently operates in 24 markets, down from 26 in 2024.
Innovaccer is reportedly seeking to raise $250 million in capital, per Axios Pro. This number matches the spending it committed to agentic AI back in April, citing the need to build out an end-to-end AI platform for healthcare enterprises, and not just point solutions. Innovaccer acquired the revenue cycle platform CaduceusHealth in May; perhaps this funding signals more deals on the horizon as companies compete to become the preferred platform partner for health systems.
Cityblock is expanding in North Carolina with its first partnership with Humana, serving ~20,000 Humana MA and Dual members in the state, deploying Cityblock’s model as a wrapper around an existing PCP for complex chronic patients. Humana is a notable win for Cityblock; it will be worth keeping an eye on if we see this expand into other markets in the near term.
Cadence’s HypertensionOS was announced as the second participant in the FDA’s TEMPO pilot program, the digital health device approval pathway tied to CMMI’s ACCESS model.
K Health continues its momentum, announcing a new partnership with Atlantic Health to roll out Atlantic Health PatientGPT, a patient-facing clinical AI tool that integrates with the EMR, alongside K Health’s virtual primary care model. Seems there’s a lot of activity as health systems think about their “front door” strategy in an AI-centric world, and it also seems like a logical conclusion for many of them to think they need their own ChatGPT clone. Whether consumers choose to use these health system-specific chatbots will be a big question to watch.
In the latest No Surprises Act legal win for providers, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that “ghost rates” can’t be included in payer qualifying offers. It continues to feel like we are in the early innings of conversations around the NSA, as these court victories help legitimize the outcomes of the IDR process, and presumably more providers take notice of that.
Funding Announcements
Flagler Health, an AI-enabled operating system for MSK practices, raised $50 million. Bessemer Venture Partners led the round. Flagler reports it has scaled to thousands of providers across 36 states, with an average of $164k in additional revenue per provider and 87% of patients reporting improvements pain, mood, sleep or mobility. The additional $164k in revenue per provider seems like the key number here, as AI revenue cycle capabilities appear to be identifying meaningful opportunities to grow revenue for practices. That revenue generation opportunity seems like a great wedge to win customers, helping land and expand relationships with practices in a manner that seems very reminiscent of the early VBC 1.0 enabler models, in that case, growing by helping PCPs capture additional revenue via VBC contracts. It’ll be interesting to keep an eye on how durable the revenue capture opportunity is here and the implications for sustained practice growth for Flagler.
Aligned Marketplace, a network of direct primary care clinics, raised $16 million. Venrock led the Series A. Aligned reportedly has 3,000+ in-person clinics in its network (plus virtual), ranging from small independent practices to groups like Marathon Health, Galileo, and One Medical, and also appears to include a growing virtual specialty care footprint.
I look at the employer survey results referenced above on the growing interest in different contracting strategies providing access to care, and it’s not hard to imagine that Aligned is seeing good momentum as employers seek to provide access to affordable primary care options. Will be curious to see if we’re finally at a point where DPC/advanced primary care can “cross the chasm” and become a meaningful part of the market. Aligned highlights a case study with a Fortune 500 employer with 75,000 employees that saw meaningful engagement with high-risk members and improved clinical outcomes. It’s not a huge surprise that clinical outcomes improve for employees engaged with these models. The more interesting question to keep an eye on is how many employees are engaged with these models, and how Aligned is driving that engagement on behalf of its care delivery network.
What I’m Reading
Inova’s Chief Data and AI Officer was interviewed this week on Inova’s AI strategy. It’s a good read on the capabilities and infrastructure an organization needs to build to implement AI successfully. It picks up on the theme we’ve heard expressed by Centene’s Sarah London and others recently, focusing on the data and infrastructure needed to successfully implement AI organization-wide. It’s interesting to watch the industry narrative shift from describing one or two quick-win anecdotes about AI to a much broader conversation about the organizational redesign required to really lean in. Not surprisingly, that seems like the more sustainable path forward for large enterprises. We heard Doximity talk on its earnings call last week about how the industry is moving on from its “AI Wild West” stage, and you can see evidence of that shift in interviews like this one.
A team from Manatt shared a white paper on the impacts of the upcoming shift in maternity payment codes, as the industry unbundles its payment model on January 1, 2027. This shift in the maternity payment model is a fascinating change that seems to continue going under the radar more than it should. As we have industry-wide conversations about the merits of moving towards value-based care, here we are seeing a major movement away from VBC and back towards fee-for-service billing, purportedly to reflect how care is delivered today. The Manatt paper does a nice job of diving in and talking through the implications for various stakeholders involved.
Featured Jobs
Principal Strategic Advisor, Provider-Side Care Delivery Strategy at CuraCor Solutions, the diversified business group affiliated with Blue Cross NC.
$130K - $208K | Hybrid (Durham, NC)
Director, Enterprise Strategy and Partnerships at UnitedHealth Group, a managed care organization.
$134K - $230K | Remote
Business Operations & Chief of Staff at Waymark, a community health worker model for Medicaid patients.
$124K - $201K | Remote
Director of Strategic Initiatives at Handspring Health, a virtual mental health clinic for children, young adults, and families.
Hybrid (NYC)
Director, GLP-1 and Cardiometabolic Health Program Manager at Omada Health, a virtual-first chronic care company.
$168K - $242K | Remote
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