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Q3 Earnings Season
UHG kicks off Q3 earnings season
Q3 earnings season for healthcare companies is ramping up, with UHG kicking things off last week, and Elevance and Molina hosting their earnings calls this coming week. At this point in the year, we’re seeing a common set of themes emerge for 2026 across payors and providers. We laid out some of these key themes that we’ll be keeping an eye on over the next few weeks in the slide below:

On Monday at 1pm ET / 10am PT, we’ll host a session for HTN members to kick off Q3 earnings season, discuss these key trends, and cover what we’ll be watching as companies report earnings. If you want to join, register below:
If UHG’s earnings call on Tuesday was any indication, 2026 continues to perform well for payors, as UHG again beat analyst expectations and raised its 2026 guidance for a third time. UHG’s stock traded roughly flat after earnings, suggesting the market has priced in the expectation that 2026 is a good year for payors, though it jumped 5% toward the end of the week.
UHG’s quarter felt like another step forward in executing the various plays it has been running across its businesses. A quick summary of each business from the earnings call:
Medicare Advantage. 2026 is now coming in at the high end of target margin range, closer to 4% margin. For 2027, growth will focus on “high-value” HMOs, C-SNPs, and D-SNPs, while continuing to rotate away from PPOs. UHG expanded its overall footprint for 2027, now serving 94% of Americans.
Medicaid. 2026 is still viewed as a trough year, with performance moderately ahead of expectations. Trend is still running high in pockets (behavioral, specialty pharma, and HCBS), while efforts around complex care management have helped mitigate costs. Expect a return to target margins toward the end of 2028.
Commercial. Trend is persistently high at 11%+, but UHC noted momentum here as it has had a really successful selling season this year in national accounts, coming off two strong years and high retention. Mid-market account selling is “remarkably strong,” driven by Surest. The No Surprises Act continues to drive the persistently high trend here, with UHC noting that some markets are seeing almost 6% of total medical spend in IDR awards, which is pressuring UHC’s ability to get to its target margin range here.
Optum Health. Continues to focus on core operational execution and a refocusing on the underlying VBC model. Focused on earnings growth in 2027 and getting back to 6% - 8% target margins, driven across VBC contracts, service lines, and new product opportunities. In the Q&A, an analyst asked about the opportunity to exceed that target margin in time, which seems indicative of the optimism around this business at the moment.
Optum Insight. On a “multi-year investment and execution journey” as it focuses on healthcare-specific AI offerings, with a number of new product launches in the next two quarters.
OptumRx. Having a good selling season, with this being the first time >50% of OptumRx membership is non-UHC. There was an interesting dialogue in the Q&A about the opportunity for growth in specialty pharmacy and infusion, which seems notable given the various conversations afoot about the specialty pharmacy market.
Given UHG’s continued outperformance in 2026, most analysts looked ahead to 2027 growth, asking about opportunities for top-line growth and margin expansion in UHG’s various businesses. UHG’s CFO Wayne DeVeydt expressed optimism for 2027, noting that analyst consensus understates the opportunity ahead, as UHG expects to hit the low end of the 13% to 16% long-term earnings growth target in 2027.
I’d imagine that is a fairly consistent theme we hear across Q3 earnings calls, as analysts seem increasingly comfortable with how 2026 is shaping up for payors and providers and are increasingly looking for clarity on growth plans in 2027 and beyond as the market landscape continues to shift.
Chart of the Week
Clinics apparently should answer their phones more

Source: a16z and Prosper
a16z released new data this week in partnership with Prosper AI, an AI automation startup that raised $30 million in June, led by a16z. The data suggests that using AI in practices can increase revenue by $125k per physician per year across four categories:
Converting missed calls to appointments ($45k)
Proactive re-engagement ($37k)
Denial prevention ($29k)
Patient payments ($14k)
It’s an interesting look at the pitch practices around the country are surely heading ad nauseam at the moment. The math behind the case is straightforward, assuming the numbers are generally accurate. It seems clear why specialty practices, particularly those backed by investors watching growth/margins, are rapidly adopting these tools. What is less clear to me, given how straightforward the analysis above seems, is why practices, particularly investor-owned ones, have historically let this revenue walk out the door.
Either way, If the numbers above hold true, I’d imagine every practice will be answering its phone 100% of the time in the near future, leveraging its preferred AI infrastructure partner to do so. The interesting question is how these platforms are being evaluated against each other, and what ultimately wins in the inevitable wave of market consolidation ahead.
A Number to Ponder
Neko’s growing waitlist and footprint
50,000
Neko’s current NYC waitlist.
Neko shared that its waitlist has grown to 50,000 New Yorkers just two weeks after opening its first clinic in New York City. It has also broken ground on two additional locations in the city to help meet demand next year. I don’t know about you, but I’m already enjoying this era of consumer healthcare, where months-long waitlists for access to health care rival those in single-payer systems like the NHS, but here in the US, that is simply a sign of an in-demand consumer offering that needs to scale.
Jokes aside, I think this commercial demand for Neko would make any incumbent provider jealous. 25,000 people signing up to pay $499 for a scan just in the last two weeks since Neko launched is an impressive indicator of demand for services like this. Whether this demand is sustainable over time, particularly in markets beyond NYC, feels like the key question here.
Interestingly, one of Neko’s new clinics in New York City appears to be a 42,000+ sq ft former Best Buy space, apparently one of the largest retail leases in NYC in the last year. The lease list is fascinating in itself, dominated by gyms. It raises an interesting question: what exactly is Neko planning to do with 42,000 sq ft? I believe an average primary care clinic is less than 5,000 sq ft, while Neko’s first lease in NYC was roughly 11,000 sq ft. So 42,000 sq ft is a big space, and it raises interesting questions about Neko’s real estate strategy and what it plans to do with the larger footprint. If one thing is clear, Neko’s investors don’t seem to be worried about traditional healthcare VC concerns around brick-and-mortar costs associated with opening clinics.
It’ll be worth watching whether Neko is simply building more scan capacity to expand access, or whether it will use the space differently / in a more expansive way. I’d imagine the latter has to be the case, and it seems easy to envision how this space becomes something of a flagship store or test concept for potential expanded offerings from Neko. With all the talk about healthcare storefronts lately, it’ll be interesting to see whether they expand in that direction.
Other Top Headlines
The spat between Atrium and the North Carolina State Health Plan continues to escalate this week. On Tuesday, Atrium issued a press release noting that the SHP’s legal case was dismissed, applauding the court decision as a cost-saving tool for SHP members and citing language on the SHP website from a September interim agreement that Atrium isn’t more expensive than other health systems in North Carolina. In response, the SHP issued a press release on Wednesday noting that it is “building on” Atrium’s commitment to consumer affordability by… moving Atrium out-of-network. Per the SHP, this will save the health plan hundreds of millions of dollars by their estimates. Continuing the theme of last week’s newsletter, I’m not sure I understand the legality of any of these moves, but I am fascinated to watch what happens next in this escalating war of wills, as the current situation seems untenable. Hopefully they can resolve some of the uncertainty for SHP members quickly, as open enrollment opened this week.
Welsh Carson has exited its stake in the CenterWell joint venture with Humana, with BlackRock purchasing the stake for $2.8 billion. This move marks Humana’s second JV with BlackRock this year, after it acquired a minority stake in hospice provider Gentiva earlier this summer. This CenterWell deal seems like a win for all parties, particularly given how much the market has shifted since the original terms of this deal were struck in 2020 (and then re-upped in 2022). In 2020, the press release about the original JV noted that Humana held a small minority stake in Centerwell, presumably somewhere in the 20% to 30% range, which would imply an overall valuation of Centerwell around $3.5 to $4 billion. BlackRock’s structure in this iteration of the JV appears shorter-term and more flexible in how it deploys capital. BlackRock will invest in CenterWell over the next two years, including clinical operations across CenterWell’s ~150 existing clinics, opening de novo clinics, and making strategic acquisitions. Starting in 2028, Humana will have the option to acquire the CenterWell clinics; if it does not by 2033, BlackRock can sell them. As this Reuters article notes, this move seems to buy additional time for Humana to continue improving the profitability of the clinics before it needs to make a decision on whether to acquire them, while also removing a liability associated with WCAS’s put option that has loomed on Humana’s balance sheet.
Zocdoc announced it acquired Sohar Health, a startup that automates insurance eligibility checks. The move doubles down on Zocdoc’s recent announcement that it is shifting its focus to building the infrastructure layer for access to care, moving away from its historical focus of being a “front door” marketplace for scheduling. Note the quote in the press release from Vinod Khosla comparing Zocdoc’s ambitions as akin to Stripe in payments, Shopify in retail, and Sabre in travel. The Sabre mention in that sentence is particularly notable to me, as it isn’t usually mentioned in the same breath as Stripe or Shopify by VCs, but it does seem like a good analog here.
I interviewed Zocdoc’s CEO, Oliver Kharraz, on Wednesday (the recording will be up this week for HTN members). We chatted about Zocdoc’s focus on the infrastructure layer and what Kharraz thinks about the future of healthcare’s “front door.” It seems telling of the opportunity afoot that Zocdoc is willingly ceding its position as a front-door access point to become infrastructure that enables other front doors.
CareMore and SCAN announced a co-branded HMO MA plan in Los Angeles and Orange County, centered around 10 CareMore Care Centers in the area. The plan offers $0 co-pay primary care, among other benefits. CareMore is currently part of Mosaic Health, a partnership launched in 2024 between Elevance and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice. Mosaic also includes CD&R portfolio companies Apree Health and Millennium Physician Group. Given Elevance’s stake in Mosaic, it seems notable that CareMore is launching a co-branded plan with SCAN first.
Indiana-based health system Parkview Health acquired Ovation Healthcare, a PE-backed organization providing strategic support to rural hospitals. Ovation has 500+ clients across 47 states, ranging from critical access hospitals to health systems. It seems notable to see a not-for-profit health system acquiring a PE-backed services organization, particularly one focused on supporting rural markets (with a new Rural Health Transformation Program offering).
Shortly after Alignment indicated in an 8-K that it would commence litigation to address CMS’s 2027 Stars approach, it did indeed file suit against CMS in the D.C. District Court. Alignment argues that its main plan, which fell to 3.5 Stars for 2027, should be at 4 Stars if CMS calculated its score excluding ten measures that were also the focus of Clover’s lawsuit against it. Given how other court cases have been resolved here, Alignment seems to have a reasonable case to regain 4 Stars for 2027.
Rush University System for Health and Endeavor Health announced their plans to merge, creating a combined Chicago-based health system that would include 12 hospitals and 400+ sites of care. Endeavor will make an incremental $1 billion investment in the region, and both brands will operate under Rush.
Funding Announcements
Suki, one of the leaders in the market formerly known as ambient scribes, raised $90 million in Series E funding. Like other players in this space, Suki has expanded beyond documentation to revenue cycle, clinical reasoning, and operational workflows. Just last week, it launched “Ask” a clinical reasoning tool that integrates data from Wolters Kluwer’s UpToDate Expert AI API. Suki noted that patient encounters have grown 190% YoY in 2026, with revenue doubling in 2025 and 2026m, and that its partner business is growing 10x over the last two years. Suki’s partner business appears to be its technology integrated into other platforms, including HealthEdge, athenahealth, Zoom, and WellSky.
Suki last raised $70 million in a 2024 Series D round at a $500 million post-money. It’s interesting to see the slight shift in narrative between then and now, as it appears the exponential growth it was seeing has slowed. It’s worth noting the callout of Suki’s partner business revenue growth given that, as that now seems like the play here.
Abby Care, a model that trains and pays family caregivers, raised $82 million in Series C funding. Transformation Capital led the round. Abby’s core model supports family caregivers in becoming home health aides, while this funding round suggests Abby Care is evolving into a broader platform that provides infrastructure to manage home health care needs. The press release notes that Abby currently serves thousands of families across eight states and has grown its census 5x since raising its Series B in 2024. I find it particularly interesting to frame this investment through the context of the healthcare industry as a countercyclical jobs program. It is worth keeping in mind that healthcare jobs are the only thing driving job growth in this country over the last several years, while the economy faces fears of increasing job loss due to AI. At the same time, the country still faces massive shortages of healthcare professionals. What's a good win-win to help solve those issues? Training a new, lower-cost workforce of family caregivers. As someone who generally believes healthcare will slowly shift toward lower-cost settings and labor over the long term, this concept seems like something we’ll be talking about more in the years ahead.
Otter Health, a utilization management platform, raised $8 million in seed funding. Fika Ventures and Evidenced led the round. Otter is helping payors and providers use the same evidence-based clinical criteria, turning the adversarial utilization management process into a collaborative one that reduces costs.
What I’m Reading
In Health Affairs Forefront, David Brailer makes a strong case that AI will inflate healthcare costs by identifying more diagnoses and comorbidities in each visit, enabling billing for higher complexity without changing clinical care. Brailer looks back at the adoption of EHRs, which similarly improved documentation while showing no improvement in outcomes or cost savings. He suggests the answer here is structural, and that the changes needed to improve outcomes and costs in American healthcare are fundamentally payment and market structure changes, not technological.
This is an interesting Forbes article on why Eucalyptus’s CEO Tim Doyle sold the business to Hims & Hers for $1.6 billion, offering an insightful look into the mind of a successful venture-backed CEO and how he defines success at a company like Eucalyptus. I mostly find it interesting because it is essentially the polar opposite of what I tend to think. For instance, it eschews building “merely durable” businesses in favor of failing spectacularly while attempting a moonshot. This mindset came into play in 2023, when Eucalyptus laid off 30% of staff after its core business failed as digital ads skyrocketed, before speculatively pivoting to GLP-1s. Doyle then shared that he sold the business after realizing Eucalyptus wasn’t the future of health, but acknowledged that was what his talk track was supposed to be about. This is just one founder’s perspective, but I think it is emblematic of why venture-backed D2C healthcare moonshots can feel disingenuous when founders only admit after an exit that their public talk track was a ruse designed to drive to an exit. Personally, after reading this article, I’m left more convinced that healthcare would be better off in this country with more people focusing on building merely durable healthcare businesses, not speculatively gambling on D2C revenue growth while focused on the exit door.
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