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MUSING ON AI
Experiencing an ambient scribe in the wild
This week, I experienced a first: I went to a doctor's appointment where the doctor asked us (I was there with a family member, not for myself) if it was okay for them to record the appointment while putting their phone on the table to record the visit using a new ambient scribing tool the health system was rolling out. This naturally piqued my interest, particularly given 1. all the activity in this market and 2. I just heard Abridge paint a really compelling picture last week of what a future doctor visit might look like using ambient scribing to document the entire end-to-end process.
I mentioned my interest in these tools to the doctor, who I’d surmise is a “late majority” adopter who is using the scribe somewhat skeptically as their system rolls it out. They immediately pressed pause on the recording and started sharing their unsolicited feedback on the tools, noting two issues they had with the technology:
It was documenting what patients were sharing about symptoms in medical terms that felt off to the doctor. An offhand comment about something like dry mouth becomes documented as xerostomia. The doctor didn’t think a comment like that warranted inclusion in the medical record in clinical terms.
It was capturing the doctor’s feedback to patients in a way that didn’t feel right to the doctor. A discussion about the next phase of life gets documented as “advanced care planning,” when the doctor would say that’s not quite right; it was a much more casual conversation that they wouldn’t document that way.
If you’re looking to make an optimistic case for this space, it seems easy to write off those comments as minor issues that will be resolved over time. If you’re more pessimistic, it’s easy to extrapolate how they could pose much larger challenges if voice becomes the system of record.
Back to the visit, the doctor then unpaused the scribe and started the visit, saying, “So I’m here today with [patient] and their family member.” It was an odd turn of phrase because this is a doctor we’ve seen dozens of times, and we’ve never started a visit that way. I think the doctor was speaking to the AI scribe?
After that, the scribe faded to the background, and the visit went on like any other visit. By 20 minutes in, I’d have forgotten the scribe was there if I wasn’t so intrigued. It was like any other visit. Then the doctor pressed pause again on the recording for a specific part of the conversation. That was a minute or two, then the doctor pressed play again, and we finished the conversation. Needless to say, if voice is the system of record, it seems quite problematic to have it going off and on like this during the visit.
All in all, if I wasn’t acutely aware of all the investment activity and excitement around AI scribes, I probably wouldn’t have noticed it at all, beyond a few “well, that was weird” moments. That generally seems indicative of the promise here — it should fade into the background. There are also clearly some kinks to work out, particularly as these sorts of tools are deployed beyond early-adopter populations into a broader, presumably more skeptical population of doctors.
Despite all the conversation about how these models perform versus one another, the kinks here don’t strike me as technical. They’re human trust and enterprise deployment issues. If voice is going to be the documentation layer that payors and providers use to adjudicate what happens in a visit, you simply can’t have providers turning it off and on during a visit. If doctors are turning it off because they don’t trust what it is capturing, that undermines the whole narrative here.
It was a good reminder for me of why I think the big question in this AI space isn’t actually a technical question, but rather an organizational design question of how care delivery organizations implement these sorts of tools in a manner that earns the trust of not only their doctors, but also their patients and their payor partners. Without all three legs of that stool, this all falls apart. I am confident the technology will get there, but I am less confident in the trust-building side, which seems like the key challenge ahead for the industry. As my first experience with an AI scribe in the wild indicated, we’re not uniformly there yet.
CHART OF THE WEEK
Operating margin blues for Blues plans
An ongoing topic of conversation in these parts of the internet is the plight of small regional plans. Blues plans are not immune from those challenges, as Modern Healthcare’s Nona Tepper highlighted how only 7 of 29 Blues plans generated an operating profit in 2025, and only 12 plans generated a profit in either 2024 or 2025. Blue Cross of Idaho is giving strong worst-to-first vibes.

Source: Modern Healthcare
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Key Trends to Keep an Eye On
News items on hot topics we’re tracking in HTN
Thoreau makes its platform move and joins the AI-enabled healthcare admin platform race, acquiring Ensemble for ~$12 billion
On Tuesday, it became official that Matt Holt’s Thoreau made a strategic investment in Ensemble at a ~$12 billion valuation, with Ensemble’s current owners, Warburg Pincus, Berkshire Partners, and Bon Secours Mercy Health remaining minority shareholders. Thoreau didn’t take long to recover from its failed quest to acquire his former portfolio at New Mountain Capital and found Ensemble as a new platform asset. Ensemble has been on the block for some time now, as it was reportedly going through a dual-track IPO/M&A process late last year at a ~$13 billion valuation, which seems to hint at the public market reaction to a potential IPO here. Warburg and Berkshire bought Ensemble from Golden Gate Partners in 2022 at a ~$5 billion valuation.
It will be fascinating to watch what comes next for Thoreau. Holt’s playbook at New Mountain, along with the original vision for Thoreau, certainly indicates that we should expect to see a number of other AI-centric assets bolted on to Ensemble. Thoreau itself is described in the press release as an investment platform, which is perhaps a bit different than the operating company I think many envisioned. We were chatting in Slack this week about how Ensemble’s JPMorgan presentation earlier this year featured a refreshingly human narrative, highlighting some of the challenges AI faces in automating RCM while underscoring the value of a boots-on-the-ground approach. Given Thoreau's AI-centric narrative, that perhaps provides some breadcrumbs indicating the path of travel here.
A key blow to anti-tiering / anti-steering clauses potentially opens the door further for alternative plan designs in the commercial market
The DOJ announced this week that it has settled its antitrust lawsuit against OhioHealth. As part of the settlement, OhioHealth has agreed that its anti-tiering and anti-steering clauses are unenforceable, although it appears that all-or-nothing clauses have emerged unscathed as I read the settlement. The DOJ originally brought this lawsuit to help drive competition in the commercial insurance market, as it opens the door to more creative plan designs. On Friday, the White House released a report from the Council of Economic Advisors suggesting that banning anti-tiering/steering and all-or-nothing contracting practices could reduce hospital prices by 18% and employer premiums by 6.5%.
The DOJ has filed a similar lawsuit against New York Presbyterian, and it will be worth keeping an eye on if that has a similar outcome. If this is the beginning of the end of anti-tiering/steering clauses, it seems like a huge opportunity in the commercial insurance market, and a massive tailwind for the alternative plan design market, which is already benefiting from a huge tailwind around cost increases. Very interesting to think about the negotiating strategy surely going on behind all of this and how health systems like OhioHealth evaluate what they “give” on here. I’d probably give on the anti-tiering / steering clauses first over all-or-nothing and bet that, given the brand position in the market, it won’t ultimately impact commercial volume all that much.
The employer innovation market continues to heat up
On a related note, we saw two interesting signals this week about activity in the employer innovation market as rising medical costs create an opportunity to sell new offerings into employers seeking to better address cost increases. First, HCSC launched its copay-only plan design, Easify. Various Blues plans in the HCSC umbrella are rolling out this offering, as copay-only plans seem to continue building on the wave Bind/Surest started a few years ago. Second, Marathon Health and Lantern partnered to combine Marathon’s primary care footprint with Lantern’s surgical network. The logic of combining an advanced primary care model with a specialty care platform seems pretty straightforward, and I’d imagine we'll see more partnerships like this as platforms seek to help employers manage healthcare costs holistically while also ensuring access to high-quality care.
Chaos remains in the Medicare Advantage Stars program
CMS seemingly pre-empted a series of Stars-related lawsuits by sending a letter to the industry that it will recalculate Stars scores after Clover’s recent legal win. Plans with a higher score can resubmit bids by June 29th. In a post-Chevron environment where the Stars program faces existential questions, this decision seems to buy CMS time to figure out what to do next.The stock market reaction to the news was muted, which provides some sense of the overall impact of this change — it’s not nearly the swing we saw around advance/final notice earlier this year. Still, it seems like another positive nudge in an industry that had a solid Q1 earnings season, providing a general sense of optimism about overall 2026 performance after several challenging years. I have to imagine that CMS leadership is keeping an eye on all of this as we move through 2026 in the ongoing negotiation between the federal government and the industry over healthcare costs. In roughly six months, we’ll be talking about the 2028 Advance Notice, and I’d think these sorts of wins will not be lost on CMS when evaluating its stewardship of taxpayer dollars.
A QUOTE TO PONDER
MultiCare’s CFO predicts a two-tier healthcare system
If this continues, my guess is that we’re going to end up creating a two-tier system: one for commercial payers and those who can afford to pay out of pocket, and a different system for Medicare and Medicaid patients
Per MedCityNews, MultiCare’s CFO shared this sentiment at HFMA, noting it will need to prioritize commercial patients, leaving CMS-covered patients waiting longer for care.
I tend to agree with Lee’s conclusion here, although politically I think the idea of large health systems explicitly allowing preferential access to the commercial population is a losing battle, with interesting implications for how care delivery entities can effectively accomplish this without facing nightmare PR articles about delaying access for poor people.
Other Top Headlines
A rundown of other notable headlines
Indiana’s effort to cap hospital prices is one of the more interesting regulatory efforts to curb hospital prices in the country at the moment, with hospitals that exceed the price cap potentially losing their tax-exempt status if they’re not below the threshold by 2029. This is sparking debate over which numbers should go into the threshold — if practitioner services are included, hospitals would appear to be below the overall cap. It would seem logical that all the services a health system offers should be included in the threshold. But also, if the underlying issue is that inpatient costs are too high, including practitioner costs in the calculation allows systems to lower their weighted average below the threshold, which seems to defeat the purpose of a price cap entirely.
Midjourney, the company generally known for its AI videos, is entering the healthcare market, announcing a 60-second full-body MRI scanning tool along with a 23,000 sq ft medspa / wellness clinic in San Francisco. Midjourney hopes that by 2031, it could deploy 50,000 of these MRI scanners across 5,000 locations around the world, casually throwing out it might need $20 billion to do so. The medspa location won’t open until the end of 2027. Midjourney has a licensing agreement with Butterfly Network to use Butterfly Network's ultrasound technology in its scanner. Midjourney suggests that with early imaging like this, the world will avoid 30% of all deaths and 50% of future healthcare costs, which feels like a great rallying cry for a company and also a very pleasant alternate universe to live in. The whole approach here is just so confusing to me — hopefully the technology works, but if so, why not just build the tech and sell it to other clinics? Why spend energy building out medspas too? Are people only going to use revolutionary scanning technology if it’s part of an AI-generated spa experience? I’m lost. Part of me feels like Butterfly is the more interesting technology to unpack behind this announcement.
OpenLoop Health announced a new offering that appears to be akin to a Shopify-for-D2C-telehealth, purportedly allowing influencers, gyms, dating apps, and anyone with a following to spin up a telehealth site within hours to start selling GLP-1s and the like. Whether you think this is good for access to care or enabling more MedVi scenarios, it certainly seems like an interesting time to be building in the wellness market.
In the PBM market, LucyRx and Abarca Health are merging, combining their platforms to create a modern PBM better positioned to compete against the Big Three.
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Funding Announcements
Highlighting the most interesting funding rounds from the week
Connie, an AI-enabled rollup of Medicare Advantage brokerages, raised $40 million. HealthQuest Capital led the round. Along with the funding, Connie announced its tenth brokerage acquisition. We’re seeing a lot of momentum in the brokerage market at the moment, specifically around the play of rolling up independent brokerages with AI, but more broadly around the importance of the broker as a strategic advisor in the MA market. As the MA market shifts, we think this theory holds water, and some companies will do quite well here by positioning themselves as trusted advisors to members/plans. One thing we’re watching as this market heats up: whether the competition for quality independent brokerages leads to frothy purchase prices and erodes financial outcomes here.
InStride Health, a virtual pediatric mental health model, raised $30 million. Echo Health Ventures and FMZ Ventures led the round. InStride reports it is expanding nationally, currently operating in 17 states and treating 5,000+ patients. It doubled revenue in 2025 and expects to double again in 2026. InStride has a cool background — its co-founders developed the clinical model at McLean Hospital and turned that into InStride.
OffPlan, a startup that is helping physicians open DPC practices and contract with small employers, raised $2.5 million in a seed round. It plans to launch in Virginia and Florida later this year before expanding nationally. Another indicator of the momentum in the DPC market right now, although this version of the play seems to have an extremely high degree of difficulty, as it attempts to build both what appears to be a DPC clinic-in-a-box model and an alternative plan design/network for employers simultaneously. We just saw Mending pivot to focus on the DPC network for employers’ play while exiting the ACA market, perhaps a nod at the benefits of focusing on one piece of the equation here.
What I’m Reading
NPR featured a story about access to GLP-1s via employers, highlighting two anecdotes: an employee who was unhappy with their experience with Vida Health, and a primary care provider who was unhappy with Virta Health deprescribing GLP-1s for one of their patients. The undertone of the piece is that these approaches help employers manage access to GLP-1s, implying they’re not on the patient's side. It’s a watch-out for this part of the industry from a PR perspective — as employers grapple with how to manage GLP-1 costs, it’s not hard to envision a scenario where these approaches face heavy criticism that looks a lot like traditional critiques of utilization management. The articles about frustrated employees being denied access to GLP-1s almost write themselves.
NPR also highlighted the conclusion of the Oregon emergency department staffing drama: PeaceHealth canceled its contract with ApolloMD and is moving forward with contracting with the local ED group that was at risk of being displaced. The Oregon Nurses Association has applauded the move as a “historic victory for all Oregonians,” and NPR highlighted the various corporate practice of medicine dynamics at play. Worth keeping this situation in mind as similar situations inevitably play out in other locales.
I am fascinated by this Substack post from an orthopaedic surgeon lamenting Higmark Health’s decision to move its prior auths from EviCore to an internal AI solution. The core of the reasoning is that AI is denying more claims because of ambiguity around surgical materials, whereas humans at eviCore would have interpreted the ambiguity differently and approved the claim. Note, this is the same eviCore that has been referred to as EvilCore, and Cigna has essentially deemed it worthless as it seeks to jettison the asset and move on. It is such a great example of what is actually happening on the ground as organizations shift to AI, why I remain pretty convinced that fully automating away payor/provider frictions is a pipe dream, and how humans will play a key role even in an AI centric world. If I were an investor, I’d be checking with Cigna’s corp dev team about the asking price for eviCore at the moment…
The WSJ highlighted the ongoing clash in Utah over the AI prescription-refill pilot, noting physicians' concerns about patient safety and medical liability. Meanwhile, the answers to these issues from Doctronic / Utah’s AI Office seem pretty straightforward. I continue to think that, of all the ways to roll out an AI-doctor pilot, Utah’s approach here is quite reasonable.
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